UFC 143 picks, Vegas-style: Making the hard calls on three big fights

LAS VEGAS -- Cashing UFC tickets may not be an task this weekend. The top of the card at UFC 143 features some difficult calls.
The underdog price of plus-175 on Carlos Condit makes him an inviting play, but Nick Diaz is on a 11-fight win streak dating back to 2007. He's pretty much destroyed or broken every opponent along the way.
On paper, Josh Koscheck (minus-265) should be a bigger favorite over Mike Pierce. So why isn't he? Are the sports books and sharp bettors onto something?
Roy Nelson versus Fabricio Werdum features grappler vs. grappler. Does that mean we don't see any dangerous scenarios unfold on the ground? Can someone pull off a submission? Or do we see a plodding stand-up battle? Werdum is a small favorite at minus-155.
Listen here as Frank Trigg, Yahoo! Sports' Kevin Iole and myself made picks during our "MMA Insiders" show on ESPN1100/98.9 FM in Las Vegas.
UFC 143 betting odds:
Best plays in bold
Carlos Condit (+175) vs. Nick Diaz (-210) - Welterweight
Scott Jorgensen (+210) vs. Renan Barao (-250) Bantamweight
Josh Koscheck (-250) vs. Mike Pierce (+210) - Welterweight
Roy Nelson (+135) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-155) - Heavyweight
Matthew Riddle (-380) vs. Henry Martinez (+315) - Welterweight
Matt Brown (-340) vs. Chris Cope (+280) - Welterweight
Alex Caceres (Even) vs. Edwin Figueroa (-120) - Bantamweight
Dustin Poirier (-525) vs. Max Holloway (+415) - Featherweight
Ed Herman (-300) vs. Clifford Starks (+250) - Middleweight
Stephen Thompson (-300) vs. Dan Stittgen (+250) - Welterweight
Rafael Natal (-170) vs. Michael Kuiper (+150) - Middleweight

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